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Hintergrund3
transparentGERflag | Score sheets: | Berlin | Vienna | Zurich | Innsbruck | Leipzig | Rules and scoring | 23.09.2017, 3:54:04UTC

Rules and scoring

This competition for weather forecasting was inspired by the original tournament created at the Cologne Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology by Andreas Fink and Edi Kirk. The Berlin Weather Forecasting Contest is the first of its kind to use the internet as a platform and was founded by students at the Institute for Meteorology of the FU Berlin in spring 2000.

The system for scoring the competition was developed by Andreas Fink and Edi Kirk for the Cologne tournament 15 years ago. We use this system in a slightly adapted form for the Berlin Weather Forecasting Contest.

Since April 2001 there is an co-operation with students at the university of Vienna.

The aim of the competition is to forecast the weekend weather of at least one of the engaged cities as accurately as possible.

The entries containing the forecast parameters for the following two days must be submitted by 15 UTC on Friday. For scoring, the submitted Parameters are compared to the official measurements of Berlin and Vienna weather stations (SYNOP data). The competitions take place on mostly all weekends during the year (please see the timetable).

It is up to you, whether you want to submit forecasts for all engaged cities or just for one city (i.e. only for Berlin).

The Parameters

Each weekend the following parameters are forecasted for Saturday and Sunday and submitted in the following form:

N - total cloud cover in eights at 12 UTC
0,1,2,...,8. Fog=9 (as SYNOP-code)

Sd - relative sunshine in %
0 to 100 %

dd - wind direction in degrees at 12 UTC
rounded to the nearest ten degree, where due north is 360°: (10,20,…,360)
special cases: 0 = no wind, 990 = wind from variable directions
Caution: please don't forecast dd = 990 any longer for Berlin, because the DWD only does automatic measurements. dd = 990 is no longer a valid observation.

ff - 10-min. median wind speed in knots at 12 UTC
in whole kts. (e.g. 14)

fx - 24h maximum windspeed from 6 to 6 UTC the following day
in whole knots if more than 25 knots expected

PPP - air pressure at 12 UTC
with 1/10 hPa accuracy (e.g. 1028.3)

TTm - maximum temperature (between 6 and 18 UTC)
with 1/10 °C accuracy (e.g. 14.9)

TTn - minimum temp. (18 UTC of the previous day up to 06 UTC)
with 1/10 °C accuracy

TTd - dewpoint at 12 UTC
with 1/10 °C accuracy

Wv - weather condition before noon 6 to 12 UTC (W1 in the 12 UTC synop)
0 = no special phenomena
4 = fog
5 = drizzle
6 = stratiform rain
7 = snow or sleet
8 = showers
9 = thunderstorm
Should more than one of the above occur, the highest number has precedence.

Wn - weather condition afternoon 12 to 18 UTC (W1 in the 18 UTC synop)
as Wv

RR - 24h precipitation from 6 to 6 UTC the following day
with 1/10 mm accuracy (e.g. 2.9)
special cases:
–3,0 = no precipitation whatsoever
0,0 = not measurable precipitation observed (<0,1mm)

The reference measurements:

To evaluate the forecasts, the parameters are compared with two weather observation stations:

For Berlin:
WMO 10382 Berlin Tegel
WMO 10384 Berlin Tempelhof

For Vienna:
WMO 11035 Vienna Hohe Warte (202m)
WMO 11036 Vienna Schwechat (175m)

For Zurich:
WMO 06660 Zurich
WMO 06670 Zurich-Kloten

Decisive for the eventual score is the deviation from these official measurements. All values between the two station's measurements are scored with maximum points.

Your forecasts must be received Friday, 1500 UTC at the latest! Please use our submission forms.

Scoring:

The scoring operates on a demerit principle based on a system of rules where points are deducted from an ideal score for every error as follows:

total cloud cover N:
perfect score: 6 pts.
point deduction:
1/8 deviation: 1 pt. penalty
2/8 deviation: 2 pts. penalty
3/8 deviation: 4 pts. penalty
>4/8 deviation: 6 pts. penalty
Exceptions: 0 or 8 eights observed: 1 additional point deducted, e.g. a forecast 7/8 while observed 8/8 is scored with 4 points.

relative sunshine:
perfect score: 5 pts.
0.1 pt. penalty per 1%
special: 1.5 pts. penalty between 0% and 1%

wind direction dd:
perfect score: 9 pts.
1 pt. penalty per 10° deviation
for wrong decisions wind /calm winds or wind / variable winds -7 pts.
for wrong decision calm winds / variable winds -5 pts.

wind speed ff:
perfect score: 6 pts.
1 pt. penalty per 1 knot deviation

24h maximum windspeed fx:
perfect score: 4 pts.

weather condition before noon Wv:
perfect score: 10 pts.

O B S E R V E D        
0 4 5 6 7 8 9
F 0 0 8 10 10 10 7 8
O 4 5 0 3 6 6 8 9
R 5 7 3 0 1 4 5 7
E 6 7 5 2 0 4 2 5
C 7 7 5 4 3 0 2 6
A 8 6 9 6 3 3 0 3
S 9 6 9 8 4 4 2 0
T
E
D

weather condition afternoon Wn:
perfect score: 10 pts.
scoring: see scoring matrix (in the case of Wv)

mean sealevel pressure PPP:
perfect score: 10 pts.
scoring: 0.1 pt. penalty per 0.1 hPa deviation

maximal air temperature TTm:
perfect score: 10 pts.
The penalties: 
less than 1.0 °C deviation:  0.1 pt. penalty per 0.1 °C dev. 
more than 1.0°C deviations:  0.3 pts. penalty per 0.1 °C dev. 

minimal air temperature TTn:
perfect score: 10 pts.
The penalties: 
less than 1.0 °C deviation:  0.1 pt. penalty per 0.1 °C dev. 
more than 1.0°C deviations:  0.3 pts. penalty per 0.1 °C dev. 

dewpoint temperature TTd:
perfect score: 10 pts.
The penalties: 
less than 1.0 °C deviation:  0.1 pt. penalty per 0.1 °C dev. 
more than 1.0°C deviations:  0.2 pts. penalty per 0.1 °C dev. 

24h-precipitation RR:
perfect score: 10 pts.
the deductions per 0.1 l/qm deviation depend on intervals (to consider the fact that precipitation amounts occure non-linear). The intervals are:
observed precipitation amount (l/qm) / penalty per 0.1 l/qm
0.0 - 0.1 l/qm / 1.0 pts.
0.1 - 5.0 l/qm / 0.1 pts.
>5.0 l/qm / 0.05 pts.
The resulting score is round to tenths.
special: In case of wrong decision "no precipitation observed" und "any precipitation observed" 3 pts. penalty.

A maximum of 200 pts. can be reached on one weekend, if the score is perfect.

Any forecast values falling between the corresponding reference values will be scored as correct, thereby receiving maximum points. The weather condition will be scored as correct if it matches one of the two reference values.

Invalid submissions

If a submission is irregular or not received at all a standard score will be awarded to the participant for this weekend. This score is calculated from the other scores as follows:

Score = average score (that day) – standard deviation

Normally this score will be somewhere in the last third of the ranking. This is intended to give players who miss a round the chance to keep up.


Submissions after the deadline of 15 UTC will have the following consequences::

  • If the forecasts of other participants are still public available the submission will definitely not be considered
  • If someone was lucky because the forecasts were uploaded very late, the forecast of this person will be definitely deleted if the submission time was more than 5 min after 15 UTC

Submissions received after the deadline are not scored, once the forecasts of other participants are public available on our homepage.

The score sheets

All of the participating cities have their own rankings:

1. Season round:
Independently from the continuous ranking all the gathered points from a whole season are added together. In general there are between 11 and 14 weekend-rounds per season. Winter is December to February, Spring is March to May, Summer is June to August, and Autumn is September to November. At the end of each season a winner is named. At the end of each year am overall winner is named on the basis of maximum points in the whole year.

2. Continuous ranking:
The continuous ranking takes into account the past 15 weekends. This means that each week the points from the latest submission are added, while those from the oldest are subtracted

Send any questions concerning rules to Marcus Beyer

wetterturnier.de

BOX

Contact to the organizers















current weather BERLIN:

768 x 576, 150dpi, 80KByte

current weather VIENNA:

Cam Wien

current weather ZURICH:

Cam Zuerich

current weather
INNSBRUCK:

Cam Innsbruck

current weather LEIPZIG:

Cam Leipzig

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